WASDE report, as feared!

As feared, today’s WASDE report lowered US soy exports by 160 million bushels and even though it reduced production now reflects a 2018/2019 carryout of 955 million bushels, the largest ever. Some analysts have said that they believe that we may see further reductions in export expectations. All-in-all, creating a very bad atmosphere for soybeans in the US. The 2018/19 corn carryout was reduced by 77 million bushels as production was lowered by about 2 bushels per acre lowering production by 152 million bushels. The report was neutral for wheat.

The big story today was that China revised its corn production numbers for crop years 2008 through 2018 adding more that a billion, yes BILLION, bushels to its domestic stocks. The market briefly dropped about 5 cents and then recovered as the Trade seems to have dismissed the report.

Dec corn traded in a wide range today with the high at 379. A good day to have had targets in. Support is the 20 day moving average, 370. Target 386. Long-term fundamentals for corn are friendly. At some point corn should divorce it self from the bearish soy complex and trade on its own merits.

January soybeans contract support is 875 then 865 with a downside target of 826. No upside targets are apparent. The US soy complex is totally dependant and attached to trade issues and Presidential tweets. Our advice has been to sell the crop and be very cautious with any ownership.

The WASDE report on wheat was neutral. We continue to watch the Russia/Ukraine balance sheet for hints of an export slowdown. No new recommendations.